IEA reports world energy emissions could peak by 2020 without harming economic growth

(WASHINGTON – June 15, 2015)  The International Energy Agency (IEA) today released a special report on climate change showing that a global peak in energy-related emissions could be achieved by the end of this decade without reducing economic growth. The report also confirms earlier findings that while some countries have taken on significant emission reduction targets in the run-up to the Paris climate negotiations this fall, much more ambition will be needed to limit long-term warming to two degrees Celsius.

“The first step to any long-term climate goal is to turn the corner on global emissions so that they stop rising and start falling,” said Fred Krupp, president of Environmental Defense Fund. “This report shows that with concerted effort the world could achieve a peak in emissions as soon as 2020 – without putting a damper on economic growth.”

The IEA report, World Energy Outlook Special Report on Energy and Climate Change, lays out a “Bridge Scenario” that would produce a global peak in energy-related emissions by 2020. It consists of five measures: greater energy efficiency, reduced reliance on coal for electricity generation, greater investment in renewable power sources, a phase out of fossil fuel subsidies, and importantly, reductions in methane emissions from oil and gas.

IEA’s report is the latest in a line of analyses highlighting the enormous opportunity to slow warming by taking cost-effective, commonsense measures to cut emissions of methane, a greenhouse gas 84 times more potent than carbon dioxide in the short run. A recent report conducted by the Rhodium Group, commissioned by EDF, found that about 3% of global gas production leaked into the atmosphere in 2012, resulting in over $30 billion of lost revenue. The short-term climate impact of this methane waste is equal to 40% of global CO2 emissions from coal combustion.

“The IEA’s inclusion of oil and gas methane as a key way to turn the corner on global emissions recognizes that reducing oil and gas methane is not only feasible but one of the most cost effective and effective things we can do to reduce climate impacts,” Krupp said. “The U.S. has established a leadership position with its commitment to reduce oil and gas methane by 45% over the next ten years and other nations should follow suit. Achieving this U.S. commitment begins with the regulatory proposals by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the Bureau of Land Management later this summer, and requires regulation of both new and existing sources.”

The country targets announced so far in the UN process – including significant targets from the United States, European Union, China, and Mexico – are not enough to secure the long-term goal of limiting warming to two degrees Celsius, the report shows. However, the IEA emphasized that the talks in Paris could provide a foundation for increasing ambition by creating a regular five-year cycle of review of countries’ progress toward meeting their commitments, and by ensuring transparency in tracking and reporting emissions.

“The IEA’s report shows the Paris talks won’t get us all the way to the two degree target – but they do offer a chance to create a ‘virtuous circle’ of increasing ambition over time,” Krupp said. “The test for Paris is not whether it locks in two degrees, but whether it lays the foundation for the greater ambition the world needs in the years and decades to come.”