In a warming world, why is there still so much snow?

There’s no doubt: Climate change is impacting winter weather. In the United States, for example, an analysis by Climate Central shows that:

• Winters are the fastest-warming season across most of the country.
• From 1970 to 2025, average winter temperatures rose in 98% of cities studied, by an average of 3.9 degrees Fahrenheit.
• It can still get really cold in winter. But cold snaps on average are becoming shorter, and we’re seeing fewer freezing nights.

One report on recent U.S. snowfall trends found that nearly two-thirds of the locations studied were getting less snow than in the early 1970s.

But that doesn’t mean that snow is declining everywhere, or that big storms are a thing of the past. The effects of climate change on snowfall are complex.

Warmer weather can cause storms to dump rain rather than snow. That much is intuitive.

But in cases where temperatures rise but stay below freezing, we could see heavier snowstorms.

The reason? A warming atmosphere means more evaporation from both land and sea, and warmer air can also hold more moisture — about 4% more for every degree F rise in temperature.

That lays the foundation for more snow: When there’s more moisture in the air, that moisture can fall as snow when conditions are right, making snowstorms more intense.

Learn more about climate change and extreme weather

Many factors influence the timing and volume of snowfall. That means some places could experience changes based on their unique geography.

For example, the Great Lakes region of the U.S. is known for massive lake-effect snowstorms, like back-to-back lake effect snow events that buried areas around Buffalo, New York in over 6 feet of snow in 2014.

Lake effect snow occurs when cold air moves over relatively warm, unfrozen waters, producing intense bands of precipitation where snowfall is often measured in inches per hour.

In regions where this phenomenon occurs, changing ice cover and temperatures could both influence the lake effect snow season — again in complex ways.

When lakes are warmer and ice cover is lower, that allows for more evaporation, creating the potential for more lake effect snow.

However, if the weather gets warm enough, precipitation will fall as rain, not snow.

So in some areas, we could see lake effect snow increase initially as the world warms, but start shifting to rain in later years as temperatures continue to rise.

Here are a few other ways changing winter weather could impact our lives:

• Crops and plants: Warmer weather can cause plants to bloom early, impacting agriculture. “When a typical freeze occurs normally, but the plants have already started flowering, it can lead to crop damage and loss. That can be devastating for food security, farmers and their livelihoods, and the overall economy,” EDF scientists wrote in a 2024 essay. Other industries can be affected, too. For example, when plants like cherry blossoms, which attract sightseers, bloom early, that can impact tourism.
• Health and allergies: While a few unseasonably warm days won’t trigger the start of the pollen season, if there are enough of them, plants may start releasing pollen. “Depending on the person, and what they are allergic to, it may feel like their once seasonal allergies now last all year long,” says Fiona Lo, EDF climate scientist. Scientists are also raising the alarm that warmer winters could expand the reach of disease-carrying ticks.
• Winter fun: For kids in cold-weather towns and cities, winter is the stuff of childhood memories. Cold months can mean snow days and bundling up in brightly colored gloves and snowpants to build a snowman or meet friends at the sledding hill. In many communities, skiing, pond hockey and outdoor ice skating are local traditions. When warming threatens ice and snow, it harms winter sports and the local economies that rely on them.

The weather patterns that people and communities depend on are changing as the world gets hotter, but it’s not too late to make a difference.